EDITOR’S NOTE: A new “Vegas Myths Busted” publishes every Monday, with a bonus Flashback Friday edition. Today’s edition originally ran on Aug. 19, 2022.

Five red roulette numbers hitting in a row doesn’t mean a black one is more likely on the sixth spin. Even if you recognize the truth of this statement, whenever that sixth spin lands on black, it can still be difficult to resist learning incorrectly from the experience.

Some gambling hopefuls sometimes use this system to predict the next big win. But according to Anthony Lucas, a professor of casino management at UNLV and former gaming industry operations analyst, this is just another common myth. And the reason comes down to a simple math class lesson.

A common misunderstanding is that long-term averages within a random process must immediately correct in the short term,” Lucas told Casino.org. “It’s the way our brains are wired.”

Essentially, the odds of landing on red don’t increase even if you’ve landed on black 10x before. Each time you spin, the odds reset. So your chance of landing on red during the first spin or the 20th spin is the same.

Brain Chemistry

Our brains evolved to see patterns in the world around us. Detecting patterns helps us humans make predictions and informed decisions. Pattern prediction was essential for early man. Just imagine hearing a loud noise in a bush. Your ancient ancestors might have assumed the noise was from a predator, based on previous encounters.

However, this tendency to see patterns sometimes leads humans to see false patterns or places where patterns don’t exist. In these cases, this is the opposite of helpful. In roulette, our brain tries to find a pattern, such as, you’ll land on black after landing on red. But this is just an example of false pattern recognition.